TASK #7: From Theory to Conjecture
Introduction
Recall that theories posit some sort of causality: such-and-such is the case because of …
Theories are, in effect, stories of a certain sort. As researchers, we’re interested in assessing the persuasiveness of different theories. We test theories by determining how well observations conform (or are consistent with) the theory.
Theories are not always clearly stated. Moreover, whole theories are often difficult to test. However, theories typically make a number of assumptions:
given assumption X, and given assumption Y, and given assumption Z, the theory suggests that W is the case.
Rather than testing the entire theory, we might then focus on testing parts of the story—that is, testing one or more of the assumptions on which the theory relies. Consequently, in assessing a theory, an appropriate place to begin is by identifying as many of the underlying assumptions as possible.
Example
Consider the following theory:
Very little sad music is played on commercial radio because advertisers don’t want their products associated with a sad mood.
Notice that this theory implies several things.
- The theory assumes that there is such a thing as “sad” music.
- The theory also assumes that sad music can evoke sad mood in at least some listeners.
- The theory assumes that feelings of sadness evoked by music can be indiscriminately associated with products that have no relationship to the music apart from a close juxtaposition.
- The theory assumes that products associated with sad feelings are less likely to be appealing.
- The theory assumes that advertisers are consciously concerned about the negative potential of sad music on product appeal.
- The theory proposes that commercial radio stations play little sad music (presumaby compared with non-commercial radio stations).
Notice that any one of the assumptions or presuppositions can be used to generate a conjecture that might ultimately be shaped into a testable hypothesis. For example, one might test whether: Playing of nominally “sad” music has a tendency to put listeners into a sad or negative mood state.
As we’ve noted, most theories are difficult to test as a whole. So instead, we typically aim to test various critical components of the theory.
Having identified the various assumptions, we can then evaluate them. Some assumptions will seem quite reasonable (grandmother research), so we might give the theory the benefit of the doubt. Other assumptions might be more contentious or questionable. Which assumptions are essential to the theory? If assumption X must be true in order for the theory to be true, and if assumption X is not entirely obvious, then we might focus on testing that assumption.
Task
For each of the following theories, identify as many assumptions as you can that must be true in order for the theory to be true.
Musicians who play the piano, violin or cello are more likely to win open concerto competitions partly because those instruments afford better opportunities for dramatic performer gestures than other instruments like the bassoon or the French horn.
In Western culture, women composers are at a disadvantage because women are less likely to conform to the image of the creative genius.
Having identified a set of assumptions, identify which assumptions are most critical. Then restate the assumption in the form of a conjecture. Once again, recall that conjectures do not need to be formulated in ways that are easily tested. Our hope is that, having stated a conjecture, we might then consider how it might ultimately lead to forming a (testable) hypothesis.
Rationale
The purpose of this exercise is to help develop skills in identifying potentially testable consequences implied in any theory.