The Importance of Hypotheses


Hypothesis:

A claim whose truth or falsity could, in theory, be tested (but not proven) by making one or more observations.

Hypothesisless:

The state of being without a hypothesis.

In exploratory studies, the researcher makes no prior claim, and therefore can never be wrong.

A common approach in traditional arts and humanities scholarship is to make some observations, and then to present a story, theory or analysis that makes sense of these observations. Since the story or theory is not presented prior to making the observations, there is no way to test the researcher’s interpretation. When research is done this way, the researcher always looks right since the observations are always consistent with the theory.

Recall that the best research invites failure. We invite failure by making predictions. That is, we invite failure by testing hypotheses that are put forward before we collect or examine the evidence.

There is an important role for descriptive and exploratory research. Often we have no idea what needs to be explained. We may need to “open the box” before we know what phenomena need to be theorized about.

There is considerable attraction to pursuing solely descriptive or exploratory research. Once again, if you don’t test a hypothesis, there is no chance of being wrong.

Hypothesislessness:

A persistent and sometimes chronic disease where a researcher is perpetually without a hypothesis.

Some scholars just don’t like being wrong. These scholars will tend to focus exclusively on descriptive, analytic and exploratory studies. The researcher who advances theories/analyses/stories only after making observations is a researcher who will appear to be omniscient.

The researcher who boldly proposes a theory or hypothesis before collecting data is frequently regarded as cocky and self-assured—the antithesis of the careful scholar. On the contrary, this boldness is the requirement for intellectual humility. The humble scholar is the one who is prepared to be wrong—especially when he or she is shown to be wrong in public. It is a mistake to believe that the researcher who proposes no theory or hypothesis is the humblest of scholars.

Slogan: Avoid chronic hypothesislessness.